Estuarine Mapping, developed by Dave Snowden (the mind behind Cynefin which helps groups understand the boundaries between ordered, complex, and chaotic domains of action – and what strategies are appropriate in which zones). It’s a sensemaking tool for navigating complex, shifting, and often ambiguous environments via mapping the affordance landscape of a system, what might change, and which elements/aspects of the system will change cheaper/faster than others. The purpose of EM is reducing risks before (strategic) planning.
The metaphor of an estuary – a place where freshwater and saltwater mix, where ecosystems shift gradually and unpredictably – is key: it’s not about finding clarity, but about understanding the dynamic edge between types of coherence.
Wiser organizations 